The Somalia National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) for the Gu’ 2025 season, organized by the Ministry of Environment & Climate Change Somalia in collaboration with WMO, FAO, and ICPAC, has officially released the seasonal climate outlook. The forecast indicates a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall across most of Somalia, with a delayed onset in key agricultural regions and above-average temperatures expected. These conditions are anticipated to exacerbate water scarcity, reduce agricultural productivity, and heighten food insecurity.
The anticipated dry conditions during the Gu’ 2025 season could significantly undermine agricultural productivity, water availability, and overall resilience, reflecting patterns observed in previous challenging years such as 2017 and 2021.
In response to these alarming trends, the Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) and FAO are calling for increased investments in anticipatory action to mitigate the anticipated adverse climate impact on the Gu’ 2025 season. A comprehensive approach is required across various sectors, including enhanced water resource management through water harvesting and conservation, provision of early warning information on rainfall onset and performance, advisories on suitable crop varieties for below-normal rains, and access to fodder and livestock vaccination programs to reduce stress on animals and secure food supplies.
The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that an additional one million people in Somalia could face crisis levels of hunger in the coming months due to the anticipated drought during the next crop cycle. This would increase the number of people experiencing acute food insecurity from 3.4 million to 4.4 million, exacerbated by below-average rains from April to June 2025 and existing funding cuts.
Given the severity of the forecasted conditions, immediate and coordinated action among all stakeholders, including international partners and local communities, is essential to address the worsening drought conditions and safeguard Somali communities.
