The 2024 Gu’ season in Somalia, which concluded with the harvest in July, yielded approximately 64,400 tonnes of cereals, including 14,100 tonnes from off-season crops gathered in riverine areas of the Shabelle Valley.

This output is 18% below the previous year’s production but remains 8% above the five-year average, which has been affected by several consecutive poor harvests in recent years.

The Gu’ rainy season, spanning from April to June, experienced average to above-average rainfall.

However, the distribution was erratic, with an early onset in late March followed by abundant precipitation in April that benefited crop establishment.

Unfortunately, an early cessation of rains in May adversely affected crop development and yields.

Additionally, crop pests such as stemborers, bush crickets, and quelea birds further contributed to the reduction in yields.

Looking ahead, the secondary Deyr season crops, typically harvested in January, are currently being planted.

Forecasts from the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) predict below-average rainfall for the October to December period, which could negatively impact yields.

Close monitoring of weather conditions is recommended to assess potential effects on agricultural output.

In pastoral regions, particularly in central and northern areas, the above-average Gu’ rains have improved rangeland conditions, enhancing livestock body conditions due to adequate pasture and water availability.

This has led to increased conception rates, herd sizes, and milk production, benefiting pastoralist communities.

Despite the challenges faced during the Gu’ season, cereal prices have remained relatively stable, with August prices around the same level as the previous year.

This stability is attributed to adequate domestic availability, including carryover stocks from the above-average cereal production in 2023.

However, food security concerns persist.

The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis estimated that about 3.6 million people, representing 19% of the analyzed population, faced severe acute food insecurity between July and September 2024.

The anticipated below-average Deyr rains could further exacerbate food insecurity in the coming months.

In summary, while the 2024 Gu’ season cereal production in Somalia showed a slight improvement over the five-year average, it fell short compared to the previous year.

Erratic rainfall patterns, pest infestations, and the forecasted below-average Deyr rains pose ongoing challenges to agricultural productivity and food security in the region.